Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’ with a stable outlook on April 10, 2026, leaving the country’s rating unchanged.
The decision is consistent with Fitch’s previous assessment following the outlook revision to stable in 2024, and reflects improving macroeconomic stability driven by reforms, but still insufficient progress for an upgrade.
Here are 8 key things about Fitch affirming Nigeria at ‘B’
1.CBN reforms : Central Bank of Nigeria reforms since 2023 are driving FX market normalisation. Fitch says easing repatriation rules is improving liquidity and investor confidence, but warns of near-term currency pressure from fiscal demands and external risks.
2. Bank recapitalisation : Banks met higher capital requirements by March 2026, strengthening buffers. The agency notes stronger capital positions improve resilience and support credit growth and regional expansion.
3. FX reserves : Reserves rose to $49.4bn in March 2026, strengthening external buffers. Fitch expects a slight decline to about $47bn by year-end amid rising fiscal pressures, though coverage remains above peer median.
4. GDP projection: Growth is projected at 4.1% in 2026. Fitch expects FX stability to support non-oil activity, but warns that inflationary pressures could constrain momentum.
5. Inflation: Inflation has eased to about 15%, down from 23% in 2024, but remains well above the ‘B’ median. Fitch warns fiscal loosening or fuel price increases could reverse the trend.
6. Fiscal performance: The deficit is projected to widen to nearly 5% of GDP in 2026. The agency cites higher spending, including security outlays and election-related costs, as key drivers.
7. Debt: Government debt remains moderate at about 38% of GDP, below the ‘B’ median. However, Fitch highlights high interest-to-revenue ratios, with federal levels exceeding 50%, as a major constraint.
8. Outlook: The stable outlook reflects reform progress, but Fitch says weak revenue mobilisation, high inflation, and fiscal pressures continue to limit rating upside.
